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A telephone survey was conducted from 21 to 24 September 2015 by Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) to gauge public views on property prices in Hong Kong.  762 respondents aged 18 or above were successfully interviewed, with a response rate of 40.0%.  The sampling error is + or –3.55% at a confidence level of 95%.

Major findings are summarized as follows:

In the current survey, the respondents were asked about their predictions of property prices in the coming year. More than two-fifths of the 762 respondents (45.8%) thought that the price level would remain at the current level,  31.0% predicted a fall, while 13.9% expected a rise.  Among those predicting a fall (236 respondents), 8.1%, 36.9%, 25.8%, and 16.1% thought the decrease would be in the ranges of less than 5%, 5-

In the survey, the respondents were asked about their opinion on whether it is now an appropriate time to buy a flat.  A majority of the respondents (77.3%) indicated that it is not an appropriate time, while 7.3% said it is.  The survey also found that an overwhelming majority (91.9%) of respondents thought the current level of property prices are too high; only 5.3% of the respondents thought it is too low.

Concerning their perceptions of the impacts of potential interest rate increase, more than one-third (37.5%) of the respondents agreed that “If there is a rise in interest rate, the property prices will go down regardless of the magnitude or frequency of the increase,” whereas 23.1% disagreed.  30.4% said “in-between”.  On the other hand, more than one-fourth (26.9%) of the respondents agreed that “Even if there is a rise in interest rate, property prices will not go down because the magnitude and frequency of the increase will be mild,” whereas 30.8% disagreed. 32.3% said “in-between”.

Meanwhile, 46.2% agreed that “As the economy of Hong Kong is deteriorating, the property prices should go down accordingly,” whereas 19.3% disagreed.  30.6% said “in-between”.  More than two-fifth (42.0%) of the respondents disagreed that “As citizens in Hong Kong still have the ability to afford mortgage repayments to a certain extent, the property prices will not go down,” whereas 23.0% agreed. 30.2% said “in-between”.

The respondents were also asked about their views on the impact of the potential increase in housing supply in the coming three to four years on property prices.  45.5% of the respondents said it cannot suppress the rise of property prices, 14.5% showed the opposite view, while 34.3% answered “in-between”.