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Survey findings on public opinion about the development plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
The Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies of The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) conducted a telephone survey to gauge public views on the Greater Bay Area (hereafter referred to as “the GBA”) plan. It found that 30.1% of the respondents intend to move to a mainland city in the GBA to live or work, and 43.2% would encourage young people in Hong Kong to move to a mainland city in the GBA.
The survey was conducted in the evenings from 29 February to 19 March 2024. In addition to the 30.1% of the respondents who said they would like to move to a mainland city in the GBA to live or work, 64.9% said they did not intend to do so and 4.9% answered “don’t know/hard to say”. Compared to a similar survey conducted in November 2022, the proportion of the respondents who were willing to move to a mainland city in the GBA had increased by 20 percentage points. The Chi-square test showed a statistically significant difference in the distribution of percentages between the two surveys.
When asked whether they would encourage young people in Hong Kong to move to a mainland city in the GBA, 43.2% of the respondents said they would do so and 41.0% said they would not. 15.8% answered “depends on the situation” (9.8%) and “don’t know/hard to say” (6.0%). Compared to the end-2022 survey, the proportion of the respondents who said they would do so had increased by 24.1 percentage points. The Chi-square test also showed a statistically significant difference in the distribution of percentages between the two surveys.
More than a third (34.9%) of the respondents deemed the GBA development plan an opportunity for Hong Kong, while about a fifth (22.1%) disagreed and over a third (35.8%) were neutral. The changes in the percentages were not statistically significant compared with those from the end-2022 survey.
The finance, transport and logistics, and innovative technology industries in Hong Kong have the potential to grow under the GBA development plan. 22.6% of the respondents agreed that the GBA plan would benefit Hong Kong’s finance industry, a decrease of 19.0 percentage points from the end-2022 survey, while 37.8% disagreed, an increase of 17.6 percentage points from the end-2022 survey. The changes in percentages were statistically significant.
As to whether the GBA plan would benefit Hong Kong’s transport and logistics industry, 38.7% of the respondents agreed, 23.8% disagreed and 32.1% were neutral. Compared to the end-2022 survey, the proportions of the respondents who agreed or disagreed with the statement decreased by 5.4 percentage points and increased by 7.5 percentage points respectively. The changes in percentages were statistically significant.
34.8% of the respondents believed that the GBA plan could benefit Hong Kong’s innovative technology industries, while 24.6% did not and 34.0% were neutral. Compared to the end-2022 survey, the proportions of the respondents who agreed or disagreed with the statement decreased by 1.1 percentage points and increased by 5.3 percentage points respectively. The Chi-square test also showed a statistically significant difference in the distribution of percentages between the two surveys.
50.9% of the respondents believed that Hong Kong’s participation in the GBA plan would lead to both opportunities and challenges. 25.6% said they believed that the plan would bring more opportunities to Hong Kong and 18.1% emphasised the challenges that would arise for the city. 5.5% answered “don’t know/hard to say”, a decrease of 7.9 percentage points from the end-2022 survey. The Chi-square test showed a statistically significant difference in the distribution of percentages between the two surveys.
The survey also found that 63.1% of the respondents viewed the competitive advantage of Hongkongers in mainland cities in the GBA as being “quite little” (36.4%) or “none” (26.7%), while 28.7% regarded it as “quite large” (23.9%) or “very large” (4.8%). Compared to the end-2022 survey, the proportion of respondents who thought Hongkongers have no competitive advantaged had increased by 6.0 percentage points. The Chi-square test also showed a statistically significant difference in the distribution of percentages between the two surveys.
The survey also asked respondents to assess Hong Kong’s attractiveness to overseas talents in the areas of innovation and technology. About two-thirds (64.3%) saw the appeal of Hong Kong as being “quite small” (33.4%) or “very small” (30.9%), while 23.8% saw it as “quite large” (20.6%) or “very large” (3.2%). Compared to the end-2022 survey, the proportion of people answering “very small” had increased by 18.8 percentage points. The Chi-square test showed that the percentage distributions of the two surveys were statistically significantly different.
As to Hong Kong’s attractiveness to mainland talents in the areas of innovation and technology, 45.0% of the respondents saw it as “quite small” (28.1%) or “very small” (16.9%), while 46.6% saw it as “quite large” (35.1%) or “very large” (11.5%). Compared to the end-2022 survey, the proportion of people answering “very small” had increased by 12.4 percentage points. The Chi-square test also showed a statistically significant difference in the distribution of percentages between the two surveys.
Regarding which city would benefit more if Hong Kong and Shenzhen cooperate in innovation and technology, 44.2% of the respondents saw cooperation as being equally beneficial to both places, an increase of 19.2 percentage points from the end-2022 survey, and 36.3% said that more benefits would accrue to Shenzhen, an increase of 23.0 percentage points from the end-2022 survey, while only 13.3% thought that Hong Kong would benefit more, a decrease of 12.4 percentage points compared to the end-2022 survey. The changes in percentages were statistically significant.
A total of 701 respondents aged 18 or above (landline: 160; mobile: 541) were successfully interviewed in this survey, and the response rates of the landline and mobile samples were 40.9% and 45.2% respectively. The sampling error for a sample size of 701 is estimated at plus or minus 3.70 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Furthermore, the data in this survey was weighted based on the probability of the respondents being selected via a dual-frame sampling design and the relevant age-sex distribution of the population published by the Census and Statistics Department.
