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The Chinese University of Hong Kong’s (CUHK) Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies conducted a telephone survey from 15 to 31 March 2023 to gauge public views about social mobility in Hong Kong. Of the respondents, 45.4% said that the opportunities for upward mobility were not enough for Hong Kong’s young people. Compared to a similar survey conducted last year, the figure had decreased by 6.6 percentage points. The main findings are as follows:

In the latest survey, 45.4% of the respondents said Hong Kong currently did not provide enough opportunities for upward mobility for young people, while 32.5% answered “in-between” and only 17.5% said that there were enough. Compared to a similar survey conducted in 2022, the figure of those who believed Hong Kong currently did not provide young people with enough opportunities for upward mobility decreased by 6.6 percentage points, while the figure who said that there were enough opportunities increased by 6.8 percentage points. The statistical analysis (chi-square test) showed that the results for 2023 were statistically significant different from those for 2022.

48.5% of the respondents said that the opportunities for upward mobility for young people had worsened compared to 10 years ago, which was 14.8 percentage points lower than the corresponding figure in the last survey, while 29.4% replied it was similar to 10 years ago and 17.1% said it had improved, which were 5.5 and 8.0 percentage points respectively higher than the corresponding figures in the previous survey. The difference between 2023 and 2022 was statistically significant.

When the respondents were asked whether the opportunities for upward mobility for young people would be better in the next 10 years or later, 33.3% of them predicted that it would get worse, 29.2% predicted it would be similar to the current situation and 31.1% predicted it would be better. The numbers of those who predicted that it would get worse and those who predicted it would be similar to the current situation decreased by 4.2 and 3.3 percentage points respectively from the last survey, while the percentage of those who predicted it would be better increased by 10.0 percentage points. A statistical test showed that the percentage distributions of the two surveys were statistically significant different.

All respondents were asked whether young people would have better opportunities to become successful if they pursued their career in mainland China. 41.5% of them answered “half-half”, while 27.9% replied they would not and 21.6% said they would. The percentage distribution of this year was not statistically significant different from that of last year (would: 19.4%; half-half: 41.4%; would not: 29.8%).

When asked whether young people would have better opportunities of success if they pursued their career in foreign countries, 43.4% of the respondents answered “half-half”, 24.0% replied they would not have a better opportunity and 17.9% thought they would. The percentage distribution of this year was found not to be statistically significant different from that of last year (would: 15.1%; half-half: 48.3%; would not: 23.2%).

Regarding personal experiences of social mobility in the past five years, 62.8% of the respondents said that they had been stationary, an increase of 5.0 percentage points from the last survey. 18.0% thought they had moved downward, similar to the corresponding figure in the last survey. 15.1% felt that they had moved upward, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from the last survey. The difference between 2023 and 2022 was found to be statistically significant.

Concerning predictions of personal social mobility opportunities in the next five years, 54.0% of the respondents said that they would not change, 22.3% predicted that they would move downward and 15.8% predicted that they would move upward.

Lastly, when asked about the meaning of upward mobility, 38.2% of the respondents answered that it was having a “higher quality of life” (an increase of 9.1 percentage points from the previous survey), followed by “more wealth and a better career” (31.0%), a “higher education level” (14.8%) and a “stronger influence on society” (5.6%). The results for 2023 were statistically significant different from those for 2022.

The survey employed a dual-frame sampling design that included both landline and mobile phone numbers. A total of 717 respondents aged 18 or above (landline: 321; mobile: 396) were successfully interviewed, with response rates of 27.0% (landline) and 31.8% (mobile). The sampling error is estimated at plus or minus 3.66 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Weighting of survey data was based on the probability of the respondents being selected via dual-frame sampling design and relevant age-sex distribution of the population published by the Census and Statistics Department.